Description
Instructions: Create a time series model (with level, linear trend, and seasonal components) for purposes of forecasting daily demand at Penguin for April 9-27, including a margin of uncertainty for each day’s forecast. Note, assume that forecast errors are normally distributed.
Calculate:
Deseasonalization (Deseas)
D-Bar
S-Bar
Seasonal (Seas) Factor
Forecast
Absolute Error
Slope
Intercept
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Margin of Uncertainty
Upper and Lower Forecasts per day
Penguin Images Services is a US-based healthcare service provider, specializing in state-of-the-art medical imaging. The imaging services they offer include MRI, MR Angiography (MRA), CT scan, 3D Imaging, X-ray and Ultrasound. Their business model is based on low cost but responsive service. They attempt to achieve this goal by maintaining a group of radiologists who are paid to evaluate images and to be available during various periods when services are expected. That is, when on duty, each radiologist is paid a minimum amount even when service is not required. Labor costs are minimized by hiring radiologists located in certain high quality but lower cost locations, mainly Indi.
The effectiveness of Penguin’s service is affected a great deal by their ability to forecast demand. Penguin does not require that patients make an appointment, because most patients were referred by their physician. These patients necessitated service on short notice.
Penguin’s location in Bainston, Rhode Island, is opened for customers Monday through Friday (0800-1700) and Saturday (0800-1200). At this location, a short-term increase in demand for MRI image evaluation has occurred. This growth was caused by the closing of the other major imaging service provider in Bainston. The increase in demand is expected to continue over the next several weeks. Historical demand (number of images by day) is shown below and included on the accompanying Excel file:
